Matchup analysis
Our model projects Eagles 20, Giants 20 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Eagles win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0 points and 40.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game). The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game).
Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) should limit Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense). Expect Eagles to find it hard going: Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) outranks Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Giants by 17 and Eagles by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Giants would be favoured by 2.6. The game is on Fox.
More: Giants schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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