Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 22, Chargers 19 at SoFi Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Texans win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 40.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game).
Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) meets Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texans puts up. Expect Chargers to find it hard going: Texans' strong defense (9th) outranks Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 20 and Chargers by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Chargers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Texans are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Texans schedule · Chargers schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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