Matchup analysis
Our model projects 49ers 27, Raiders 19 at Levi's Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: 49ers win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 45.4 combined points.
The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game). The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game).
Expect Raiders to find it hard going: 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) outranks Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense). 49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Raiders' struggling defense (30th); that mismatch is where most of 49ers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 9 and 49ers by 25 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour 49ers by about 5.2. The game is on Fox.
More: Raiders schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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