Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 23, Packers 19 at Gillette Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Patriots win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 41.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game). The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Expect Packers to find it hard going: Patriots' strong defense (5th) outranks Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense). Packers' strong defense (7th) should limit Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 14 and Patriots by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 0.4. The game is on Fox.
More: Packers schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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