Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 23, Buccaneers 21 at Soldier Field in Week 9. That is a lean: Bears win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 43.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game). The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) meets Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buccaneers puts up. Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th); that mismatch is where most of Bears' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 14 and Bears by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 0.1. The game is on NBC.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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