Matchup analysis
Our model projects 49ers 21, Giants 20 at MetLife Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: 49ers win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 41.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game). The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game).
49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th); that mismatch is where most of 49ers' projected points come from. Expect Giants to find it hard going: 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) outranks Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 18 and Giants by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The 49ers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
More: 49ers schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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