Matchup analysis
Our model projects Browns 21, Bengals 20 at Huntington Bank Field in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Browns win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 40.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game). The Browns are 5-2, scoring 19 and allowing 20.9 points per game (-1.9 per game).
Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from. Expect Browns to find it hard going: Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) outranks Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 16 and Browns by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Browns get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bengals would be favoured by 1.8. The game is on CBS.
More: Bengals schedule · Browns schedule · all Week 13 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.