Matchup analysis
Our model projects Falcons 23, Lions 21 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Falcons win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 43.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game). The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) against Falcons' below-average defense (20th). Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Lions' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Falcons' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 15 and Falcons by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Lions would be favoured by 0.3. The game is on CBS.
More: Lions schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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