Matchup analysis
Our model projects Saints 21, Packers 21 at Caesars Superdome in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Saints win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 42.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game). The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game).
Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) meets Saints' below-average defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Packers puts up. Expect Saints to find it hard going: Packers' strong defense (7th) outranks Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 17 and Saints by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Packers would be favoured by 2.5. The game is on Fox.
More: Packers schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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