Matchup analysis
Our model projects Titans 23, Commanders 20 at Nissan Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Titans win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 43.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game). The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) against Titans' below-average defense (25th). Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense) meets Commanders' struggling defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Titans puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Commanders by 14 and Titans by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Titans by about 0.4. The game is on CBS.
More: Commanders schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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