Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 24, Panthers 16 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.6 points and 40.4 combined points.
The Panthers are 3-3, scoring 26.5 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-1.2 per game). The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game).
Expect Panthers to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense). Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense) meets Panthers' below-average defense (27th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Panthers by 9 and Vikings by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 5. The game is on CBS.
More: Panthers schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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