Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 21, Texans 18 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Steelers win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 39.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game).
Steelers' strong defense (8th) should limit Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense). Expect Steelers to find it hard going: Texans' strong defense (9th) outranks Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 14 and Steelers by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Steelers by about 0.2. The game is on NBC.
More: Texans schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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