Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 18, Patriots 16 at Gillette Stadium in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Vikings win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 33 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game). The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Patriots' strong defense (5th) should limit Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense). Expect Patriots to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 19 and Patriots by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Vikings schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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