Matchup analysis
Our model projects Browns 21, Falcons 18 at Huntington Bank Field in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Browns win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 38.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game). The Browns are 5-2, scoring 19 and allowing 20.9 points per game (-1.9 per game).
Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) meets Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Falcons puts up. Expect Browns to find it hard going: Falcons' below-average defense (20th) outranks Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 15 and Browns by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Browns get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Falcons would be favoured by 0.3. The game is on CBS.
More: Falcons schedule · Browns schedule · all Week 14 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.