Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 23, Dolphins 18 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 14. That is a lean: Bears win about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 41 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game). The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) against Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd). Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 22 and Dolphins by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bears are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Bears schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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