Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 21, Jets 19 at MetLife Stadium in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Broncos win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 39.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game). The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game).
Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) meets Jets' below-average defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Broncos puts up. Expect Jets to find it hard going: Broncos' strong defense (4th) outranks Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 19 and Jets by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Broncos are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Broncos schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 14 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.