Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 22, Commanders 19 at Northwest Stadium in Week 14. That is a lean: Texans win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 41.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (29th). Texans' strong defense (9th) should limit Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 20 and Commanders by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Texans are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Texans schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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