Matchup analysis
Our model projects Panthers 25, Saints 21 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 14. That is a lean: Panthers win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game). The Panthers are 3-3, scoring 26.5 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-1.2 per game).
Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Panthers' below-average defense (27th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Saints puts up. Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Saints' below-average defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Panthers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 14 and Panthers by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Panthers by about 0.7. The game is on CBS.
More: Saints schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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