Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 20, Buccaneers 19 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Ravens win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 39.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game). The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th); that mismatch is where most of Buccaneers' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) against Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 16 and Ravens by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Buccaneers would be favoured by 1.6. The game is on Fox.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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