Matchup analysis
Our model projects Lions 25, Titans 21 at Ford Field in Week 14. That is a lean: Lions win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 46.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game). The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game).
Expect Titans to find it hard going: Lions' below-average defense (26th) outranks Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense). Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Titans' below-average defense (25th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 13 and Lions by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lions by about 1.2. The game is on Fox.
More: Titans schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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