Matchup analysis
Our model projects Raiders 22, Chargers 19 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 14. That is a lean: Raiders win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 41.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game). The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game).
Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chargers puts up. Expect Raiders to find it hard going: Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) outranks Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 14 and Raiders by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Chargers would be dead even. The game is on CBS.
More: Chargers schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 14 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.