Matchup analysis
Our model projects 49ers 21, Rams 20 at Levi's Stadium in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: 49ers win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 40.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game). The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game).
Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) meets 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rams puts up. 49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th); that mismatch is where most of 49ers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 16 and 49ers by 18 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Rams would be favoured by 1.2. The game is on Fox.
More: Rams schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 14 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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