Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Falcons 27, Panthers 19 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Falcons win about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8 points and 46.7 combined points.
The Panthers are 3-3, scoring 26.5 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-1.2 per game). The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game).
Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Falcons' below-average defense (20th); that mismatch is where most of Panthers' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) against Panthers' below-average defense (27th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Panthers by 9 and Falcons by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Falcons by about 5.4. The game is on Fox.
Result: Panthers 34, Falcons 3. Panthers won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 39 points).
More: Panthers schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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