Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chargers 24, Raiders 20 at SoFi Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Chargers win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 44.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-4, scoring 26.1 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-2 per game). The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game).
Expect Raiders to find it hard going: Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) outranks Raiders' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 22 points against an average defense). Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chargers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 13 and Chargers by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Chargers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chargers by about 1.5. The game is on CBS.
Result: Raiders 26, Chargers 14. Raiders won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.1 points).
More: Raiders schedule · Chargers schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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