Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected 49ers 28, Dolphins 18 at Levi's Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: 49ers win about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.4 points and 45.7 combined points.
The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game). The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game).
49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: 49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 7 and 49ers by 27 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour 49ers by about 7.8. The game is on Fox.
Result: Dolphins 13, 49ers 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.6 points and the total by 2.3.
More: Dolphins schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.