Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cowboys 28, Commanders 27 at AT&T Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Cowboys win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 54.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game). The Cowboys are 3-4, scoring 27 and allowing 25.7 points per game (+1.3 per game).
Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (31st); that mismatch is where most of Commanders' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (29th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Commanders by 16 and Cowboys by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Commanders would be favoured by 1.8. The game is on Fox.
Result: Commanders 20, Cowboys 37. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.2 points and the total by 2.8.
More: Commanders schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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