Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Patriots 24, Steelers 18 at Gillette Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Patriots win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 42.5 combined points.
The Steelers are 5-2, scoring 21.9 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+2.2 per game). The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Patriots' strong defense (5th) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense). Expect Patriots to find it hard going: Steelers' strong defense (8th) outranks Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 11 and Patriots by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Patriots get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Patriots by about 3.3. The game is on CBS.
Result: Steelers 3, Patriots 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.1 points and the total by 19.5.
More: Steelers schedule · Patriots schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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