Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rams 27, Giants 23 at SoFi Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Rams win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 49.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Giants are 4-2-1, scoring 23.3 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.3 per game). The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game).
Expect Giants to find it hard going: Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) outranks Giants' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense). Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th); that mismatch is where most of Rams' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Giants by 12 and Rams by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 2. The game is on ESPN / ABC.
Result: Giants 6, Rams 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.4 points and the total by 15.6.
More: Giants schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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