Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chiefs 26, Dolphins 20 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Chiefs win about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.4 points and 45.6 combined points.
The Chiefs are 5-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 17.2 points per game (+6.6 per game). The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) against Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd). Chiefs' elite defense (3rd) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 23 and Dolphins by 11 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Chiefs are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.6 points and the total by 11.6.
More: Chiefs schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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