Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colts 26, Commanders 23 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Colts win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 49 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Colts are 2-5, scoring 22 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-3.7 per game). The Commanders are 1-4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-6.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) against Commanders' struggling defense (29th). Commanders' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Commanders' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 19 and Commanders by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Commanders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Colts are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NFL Net.
Result: Colts 30, Commanders 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.7 points and the total by 6.
More: Colts schedule · Commanders schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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