NFL Week 4 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 29, 2026

Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season has 16 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Steelers at Browns (0.7-point margin), the highest projected total is Lions at Panthers (52.5 points) and the lowest is Steelers at Browns (39). 7 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

16 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 11 of them (69%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

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FinalPrime Video
Steelers19final 24
Browns20final 27
Final: Steelers 24, Browns 27. We projected Browns 20-19 (52%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 77°F, Wind 11 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
CLE by 0.7
Total 39
DraftKings
PIT -2.5
Total 38.5
Our number — CLE by 0.7 · Total 39 | DraftKings — PIT -2.5 · Total 38.5
Final CLE by 3. CLE covered the spread. 51 points — over the 38.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 1, 7:27 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Browns 52% · total 39Full preview →
FinalNFL Net
Colts26final 30
Commanders23final 13
Final: Colts 30, Commanders 13. We projected Colts 26-23 (57%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 70°F, Wind 7 mph.Recorded at kickoff for London · nflverse
Our number
IND by 2.3
Total 49
DraftKings
IND -4.5
Total 46.5
Our number — IND by 2.3 · Total 49 | DraftKings — IND -4.5 · Total 46.5
Final IND by 17. IND covered the spread. 43 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 3, 4:01 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Colts 57% · total 49Full preview →
FinalCBS
Patriots22final 29
Bills27final 26
Final: Patriots 29, Bills 26. We projected Bills 27-22 (65%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 69°F, Wind 11 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
BUF by 4.7
Total 48.6
DraftKings
BUF -7
Total 49.5
Our number — BUF by 4.7 · Total 48.6 | DraftKings — BUF -7 · Total 49.5
Final NE by 3. NE covered the spread. 55 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 4, 10:54 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bills 65% · total 48.5Full preview →
FinalFox
Jets19final 12
Bears25final 23
Final: Jets 12, Bears 23. We projected Bears 25-19 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 72°F, Wind 3 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
CHI by 5.6
Total 44.2
DraftKings
CHI -3.5
Total 43.5
Our number — CHI by 5.6 · Total 44.2 | DraftKings — CHI -3.5 · Total 43.5
Final CHI by 11. CHI covered the spread. 35 points — under the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 4, 10:54 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bears 67% · total 44.2Full preview →
FinalCBS
Jaguars26final 22
Bengals24final 17
Final: Jaguars 22, Bengals 17. We projected Jaguars 26-24 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 70°F, Wind 4 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
JAX by 1.6
Total 49.8
DraftKings
CIN -2.5
Total 51.5
Our number — JAX by 1.6 · Total 49.8 | DraftKings — CIN -2.5 · Total 51.5
Final JAX by 5. JAX covered the spread. 39 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 4, 10:54 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaguars 55% · total 49.8Full preview →
FinalCBS
Cardinals22final 24
Giants22final 36
Final: Cardinals 24, Giants 36. We projected Cardinals 22-22 (52%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 63°F, Wind 9 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
ARI by 0.7
Total 44.1
DraftKings
ARI -2.5
Total 44.5
Our number — ARI by 0.7 · Total 44.1 | DraftKings — ARI -2.5 · Total 44.5
Final NYG by 12. NYG covered the spread. 60 points — over the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 4, 10:54 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cardinals 52% · total 44.1Full preview →
FinalFox
Rams23final 24
Eagles21final 20
Final: Rams 24, Eagles 20. We projected Rams 23-21 (58%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 62°F, Wind 9 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
LA by 2.5
Total 43.7
DraftKings
LA -3.5
Total 42.5
Our number — LA by 2.5 · Total 43.7 | DraftKings — LA -3.5 · Total 42.5
Final LA by 4. LA covered the spread. 44 points — over the 42.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 4, 10:54 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Rams 58% · total 43.7Full preview →
FinalFox
Packers22final 17
Buccaneers19final 14
Final: Packers 17, Buccaneers 14. We projected Packers 22-19 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 86°F, Wind 3 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
GB by 2.7
Total 41.4
DraftKings
GB -3
Total 38.5
Our number — GB by 2.7 · Total 41.4 | DraftKings — GB -3 · Total 38.5
Final GB by 3. The spread was a push. 31 points — under the 38.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 4, 10:54 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Packers 59% · total 41.3Full preview →

FinalCBS
Titans15final 18
Ravens29final 24
Final: Titans 18, Ravens 24. We projected Ravens 29-15 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 62°F, Wind 6 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
BAL by 13.2
Total 43.9
DraftKings
BAL -11.5
Total 42.5
Our number — BAL by 13.2 · Total 43.9 | DraftKings — BAL -11.5 · Total 42.5
Final BAL by 6. TEN covered the spread. 42 points — under the 42.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 4, 10:54 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Ravens 85% · total 44Full preview →
FinalFox
Cowboys23final 34
Texans27final 30
Final: Cowboys 34, Texans 30. We projected Texans 27-23 (61%) — the model missed this one.
Retractable roof (closed) · Indoors.
Our number
HOU by 3.6
Total 50.1
DraftKings
HOU -3
Total 48.5
Our number — HOU by 3.6 · Total 50.1 | DraftKings — HOU -3 · Total 48.5
Final DAL by 4. DAL covered the spread. 64 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 4, 10:54 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Texans 61% · total 50Full preview →
FinalFox
Dolphins14final 10
Vikings26final 15
Final: Dolphins 10, Vikings 15. We projected Vikings 26-14 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
MIN by 11.9
Total 40.7
DraftKings
MIN -10
Total 38.5
Our number — MIN by 11.9 · Total 40.7 | DraftKings — MIN -10 · Total 38.5
Final MIN by 5. MIA covered the spread. 25 points — under the 38.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 4, 10:54 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Vikings 82% · total 40.7Full preview →
FinalCBS
Chiefs25final 30
Raiders23final 27
Final: Chiefs 30, Raiders 27. We projected Chiefs 25-23 (58%) — winner called correctly.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
KC by 2.4
Total 47.4
DraftKings
KC -5.5
Total 47.5
Our number — KC by 2.4 · Total 47.4 | DraftKings — KC -5.5 · Total 47.5
Final KC by 3. LV covered the spread. 57 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 4, 4:16 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Chiefs 58% · total 47.4Full preview →
FinalCBS
Broncos21final 14
49ers27final 24
Final: Broncos 14, 49ers 24. We projected 49ers 27-21 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 87°F, Wind 4 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
SF by 5.7
Total 48.5
DraftKings
SF -3
Total 48.5
Our number — SF by 5.7 · Total 48.5 | DraftKings — SF -3 · Total 48.5
Final SF by 10. SF covered the spread. 38 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. Both totals were equally close.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 4, 4:16 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
49ers 68% · total 48.5Full preview →
FinalCBS
Chargers16final 23
Seahawks25final 30
Final: Chargers 23, Seahawks 30. We projected Seahawks 25-16 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 63°F, Wind 3 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
SEA by 9.2
Total 41.2
DraftKings
SEA -7
Total 42.5
Our number — SEA by 9.2 · Total 41.2 | DraftKings — SEA -7 · Total 42.5
Final SEA by 7. The spread was a push. 53 points — over the 42.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 4, 4:16 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Seahawks 77% · total 41.2Full preview →
FinalNBC
Lions27final 26
Panthers26final 32
Final: Lions 26, Panthers 32. We projected Lions 27-26 (55%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 66°F, Wind 2 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
DET by 1.5
Total 52.5
DraftKings
DET -3.5
Total 51.5
Our number — DET by 1.5 · Total 52.5 | DraftKings — DET -3.5 · Total 51.5
Final CAR by 6. CAR covered the spread. 58 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 4, 4:16 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lions 55% · total 52.5Full preview →
FinalESPN
Falcons22final 45
Saints25final 24
Final: Falcons 45, Saints 24. We projected Saints 25-22 (59%) — the model missed this one.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
NO by 2.9
Total 47.6
DraftKings
NO -1.5
Total 47.5
Our number — NO by 2.9 · Total 47.6 | DraftKings — NO -1.5 · Total 47.5
Final ATL by 21. ATL covered the spread. 69 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 5, 7:52 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Saints 59% · total 47.6Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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