Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jaguars 26, Bengals 24 at Paycor Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Jaguars win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 49.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jaguars are 4-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+8.4 per game). The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) against Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th). Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) meets Jaguars' strong defense (6th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bengals puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 19 and Bengals by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Jaguars 22, Bengals 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.4 points and the total by 10.8.
More: Jaguars schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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