Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Saints 25, Falcons 22 at Caesars Superdome in Week 4. That is a lean: Saints win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 47.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game). The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game).
Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Saints' below-average defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Falcons' projected points come from. Expect Saints to find it hard going: Falcons' below-average defense (20th) outranks Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 14 and Saints by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Saints by about 0.3. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Falcons 45, Saints 24. Falcons won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.9 points).
More: Falcons schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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