Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Vikings 26, Dolphins 14 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 40.7 combined points.
The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game). The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game).
Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense). Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd) should limit Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 5 and Vikings by 29 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 9.3. The game is on Fox.
Result: Dolphins 10, Vikings 15. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.9 points and the total by 15.7.
More: Dolphins schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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