Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rams 23, Eagles 21 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Rams win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 43.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game). The Eagles are 2-5, scoring 18.1 and allowing 25 points per game (-6.9 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) against Eagles' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th). Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Eagles' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 19 and Eagles by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Rams are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Rams 24, Eagles 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.5 points and the total by 0.3.
More: Rams schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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