Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bears 25, Jets 19 at Soldier Field in Week 4. That is a lean: Bears win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jets are 2-5, scoring 19.6 and allowing 21.4 points per game (-1.8 per game). The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game).
Expect Jets to find it hard going: Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) outranks Jets' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Jets' below-average defense (21st); that mismatch is where most of Bears' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 11 and Bears by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 3. The game is on Fox.
Result: Jets 12, Bears 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.4 points and the total by 9.2.
More: Jets schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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