Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ravens 29, Titans 15 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Ravens win about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.2 points and 44 combined points.
The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game). The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) should limit Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) against Titans' below-average defense (25th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 4 and Ravens by 30 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ravens by about 10.6. The game is on CBS.
Result: Titans 18, Ravens 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.2 points and the total by 2.
More: Titans schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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