Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Seahawks 25, Chargers 16 at Lumen Field in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Seahawks win about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.2 points and 41.2 combined points.
The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game). The Seahawks are 4-3, scoring 24 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+6.1 per game).
Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) should limit Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Seahawks' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 8 and Seahawks by 26 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Seahawks by about 6.6. The game is on CBS.
Result: Chargers 23, Seahawks 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 11.8.
More: Chargers schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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