Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lions 27, Panthers 26 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Lions win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 52.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game). The Panthers are 3-3, scoring 26.5 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-1.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) against Panthers' below-average defense (27th). Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Lions' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Panthers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 18 and Panthers by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Lions are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
Result: Lions 26, Panthers 32. Panthers won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.5 points).
More: Lions schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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