Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Packers 22, Buccaneers 19 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Packers win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 41.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game). The Buccaneers are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+1.5 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) should limit Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense). Expect Buccaneers to find it hard going: Packers' strong defense (7th) outranks Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 20 and Buccaneers by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Packers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Packers 17, Buccaneers 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 10.3.
More: Packers schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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