Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected 49ers 27, Broncos 21 at Levi's Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: 49ers win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 48.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game). The 49ers are 6-1, scoring 28.1 and allowing 19.9 points per game (+8.2 per game).
49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense). 49ers' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) meets Broncos' strong defense (4th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points 49ers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 11 and 49ers by 23 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour 49ers by about 3.1. The game is on CBS.
Result: Broncos 14, 49ers 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.3 points and the total by 10.5.
More: Broncos schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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