NFL Week 5 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 29, 2026

Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season has 15 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Browns at Jets (0.3-point margin), the highest projected total is Lions at Cardinals (55.1 points) and the lowest is Texans at Titans (39.7). 6 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

14 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 10 of them (71%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

CSV download · Sports Pro

FinalPrime Video
Buccaneers21final 24
Cowboys29final 16
Final: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16. We projected Cowboys 29-21 (73%) — the model missed this one.
Retractable roof (closed) · Indoors.
Our number
DAL by 7.8
Total 50.4
DraftKings
DAL -8.5
Total 49.5
Our number — DAL by 7.8 · Total 50.4 | DraftKings — DAL -8.5 · Total 49.5
Final TB by 8. TB covered the spread. 40 points — under the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 8, 7:53 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cowboys 73% · total 50.4Full preview →
FinalNFL Net
Eagles18final 17
Jaguars24final 19
Final: Eagles 17, Jaguars 19. We projected Jaguars 24-18 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 58°F, Wind 7 mph W.Observed near kickoff for London · MET Norway
Our number
JAX by 5.4
Total 42.1
DraftKings
JAX -7.5
Total 41.5
Our number — JAX by 5.4 · Total 42.1 | DraftKings — JAX -7.5 · Total 41.5
Final JAX by 2. PHI covered the spread. 36 points — under the 41.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via The Odds API, Oct 11, 9:20 AM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaguars 67% · total 42.1Full preview →
FinalFox
Bears23final 7
Packers23final 31
Final: Bears 7, Packers 31. We projected Packers 23-23 (52%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
GB by 0.5
Total 46.1
DraftKings
CHI -1.5
Total 46.5
Our number — GB by 0.5 · Total 46.1 | DraftKings — CHI -1.5 · Total 46.5
Final GB by 24. GB covered the spread. 38 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 12:55 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Packers 52% · total 46.1Full preview →
FinalCBS
Texans23final 26
Titans17final 3
Final: Texans 26, Titans 3. We projected Texans 23-17 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 63°F, Wind 8 mph WNW.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
HOU by 5.5
Total 39.7
DraftKings
HOU -6.5
Total 37.5
Our number — HOU by 5.5 · Total 39.7 | DraftKings — HOU -6.5 · Total 37.5
Final HOU by 23. HOU covered the spread. 29 points — under the 37.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 12:55 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Texans 67% · total 39.7Full preview →
FinalFox
Bengals25final 31
Dolphins20final 24
Final: Bengals 31, Dolphins 24. We projected Bengals 25-20 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 90°F, Wind 15 mph SE.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
CIN by 5.3
Total 45.6
DraftKings
CIN -7
Total 44.5
Our number — CIN by 5.3 · Total 45.6 | DraftKings — CIN -7 · Total 44.5
Final CIN by 7. The spread was a push. 55 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 12:55 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bengals 66% · total 45.5Full preview →
FinalCBS
Raiders20final 17
Patriots25final 45
Final: Raiders 17, Patriots 45. We projected Patriots 25-20 (63%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 6 mph S.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
NE by 4.3
Total 45
DraftKings
NE -3.5
Total 45.5
Our number — NE by 4.3 · Total 45 | DraftKings — NE -3.5 · Total 45.5
Final NE by 28. NE covered the spread. 62 points — over the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 12:55 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Patriots 63% · total 45.1Full preview →
FinalFox
Vikings24final 23
Saints19final 13
Final: Vikings 23, Saints 13. We projected Vikings 24-19 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
MIN by 5.4
Total 43.3
DraftKings
MIN -2.5
Total 41.5
Our number — MIN by 5.4 · Total 43.3 | DraftKings — MIN -2.5 · Total 41.5
Final MIN by 10. MIN covered the spread. 36 points — under the 41.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 12:55 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Vikings 67% · total 43.2Full preview →
FinalCBS
Browns20final 12
Jets20final 17
Final: Browns 12, Jets 17. We projected Jets 20-20 (51%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Rain and fog/mist, 59°F, Wind 8 mph ENE.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
Even
Total 40.2
DraftKings
NYJ -2.5
Total 38.5
Our number — Even · Total 40.2 | DraftKings — NYJ -2.5 · Total 38.5
Final NYJ by 5. NYJ covered the spread. 29 points — under the 38.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 12:55 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jets 51% · total 40.3Full preview →

FinalCBS
Colts21final 22
Steelers23final 34
Final: Colts 22, Steelers 34. We projected Steelers 23-21 (56%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Light rain and fog/mist, 55°F.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
PIT by 1.8
Total 44.3
DraftKings
PIT -3
Total 41.5
Our number — PIT by 1.8 · Total 44.3 | DraftKings — PIT -3 · Total 41.5
Final PIT by 12. PIT covered the spread. 56 points — over the 41.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 12:55 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Steelers 56% · total 44.3Full preview →
FinalFox
Giants20final 27
Commanders24final 27
Final: Giants 27, Commanders 27. We projected Commanders 24-20 (64%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Light rain and fog/mist, 66°F, Wind 8 mph NNE.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
WAS by 4.4
Total 43.4
DraftKings
WAS -3.5
Total 41.5
Our number — WAS by 4.4 · Total 43.4 | DraftKings — WAS -3.5 · Total 41.5
Final: tied at 27. NYG covered the spread. 54 points — over the 41.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 12:55 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Commanders 64% · total 43.4Full preview →
FinalCBS
Broncos22final 23
Chargers21final 17
Final: Broncos 23, Chargers 17. We projected Broncos 22-21 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
DEN by 1.5
Total 43.2
DraftKings
DEN -3.5
Total 42.5
Our number — DEN by 1.5 · Total 43.2 | DraftKings — DEN -3.5 · Total 42.5
Final DEN by 6. DEN covered the spread. 40 points — under the 42.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 3:27 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Broncos 55% · total 43.3Full preview →
FinalFox
Lions29final 45
Cardinals26final 21
Final: Lions 45, Cardinals 21. We projected Lions 29-26 (61%) — winner called correctly.
Retractable roof (closed) · Indoors.
Our number
DET by 3.5
Total 55.1
DraftKings
DET -5.5
Total 55.5
Our number — DET by 3.5 · Total 55.1 | DraftKings — DET -5.5 · Total 55.5
Final DET by 24. DET covered the spread. 66 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 3:27 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lions 61% · total 55.1Full preview →
FinalFox
49ers23final 32
Seahawks24final 29
Final: 49ers 32, Seahawks 29. We projected Seahawks 24-23 (55%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Clear, 59°F, Wind 8 mph NW.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
SEA by 1.4
Total 46.6
DraftKings
SEA -3
Total 46.5
Our number — SEA by 1.4 · Total 46.6 | DraftKings — SEA -3 · Total 46.5
Final SF by 3. SF covered the spread. 61 points — over the 46.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 3:27 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Seahawks 55% · total 46.6Full preview →
FinalNBC
Ravens20final 30
Falcons24final 23
Final: Ravens 30, Falcons 23. We projected Falcons 24-20 (62%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 3 mph W.Observed near kickoff · National Weather Service
Our number
ATL by 3.9
Total 44.3
DraftKings
ATL -3
Total 43.5
Our number — ATL by 3.9 · Total 44.3 | DraftKings — ATL -3 · Total 43.5
Final BAL by 7. BAL covered the spread. 53 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 11, 7:29 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Falcons 62% · total 44.3Full preview →
FinalESPN / ABC
Bills27final 37
Rams28final 34
Final: Bills 37, Rams 34. We projected Rams 28-27 (54%) — the model missed this one.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
LA by 1.3
Total 54.7
DraftKings
LA -3.5
Total 55.5
Our number — LA by 1.3 · Total 54.7 | DraftKings — LA -3.5 · Total 55.5
Final BUF by 3. BUF covered the spread. 71 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 12, 7:31 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Rams 54% · total 54.7Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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