Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Vikings 24, Saints 19 at Caesars Superdome in Week 5. That is a lean: Vikings win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 43.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Vikings are 6-0, scoring 20.8 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+8.5 per game). The Saints are 2-5, scoring 23.1 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-4.6 per game).
Vikings' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense) meets Saints' below-average defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up. Vikings' elite defense (1st) should limit Saints' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 22 and Saints by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Vikings 23, Saints 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.6 points and the total by 7.2.
More: Vikings schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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