Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Packers 23, Bears 23 at Lambeau Field in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Packers win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 46.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bears are 5-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+5.3 per game). The Packers are 4-3, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.7 points per game (-0.1 per game).
Bears' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) meets Packers' strong defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bears puts up. Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) should limit Packers' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 16 and Packers by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bears would be favoured by 2.1. The game is on Fox.
Result: Bears 7, Packers 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.5 points and the total by 8.1.
More: Bears schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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