Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texans 23, Titans 17 at Nissan Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Texans win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 39.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Texans are 2-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Titans are 1-6, scoring 15.4 and allowing 22.3 points per game (-6.9 per game).
Texans' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Titans' below-average defense (25th); that mismatch is where most of Texans' projected points come from. Expect Titans to find it hard going: Texans' strong defense (9th) outranks Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 22 and Titans by 11 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Texans are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Texans 26, Titans 3. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.5 points and the total by 10.7.
More: Texans schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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