Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bengals 25, Dolphins 20 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Bengals win about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 45.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bengals are 4-2, scoring 27.2 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+6.9 per game). The Dolphins are 1-5, scoring 16.3 and allowing 26.2 points per game (-9.9 per game).
Bengals' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Dolphins' below-average defense (22nd); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from. Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Bengals' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 22 and Dolphins by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bengals are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Bengals 31, Dolphins 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.7 points and the total by 9.5.
More: Bengals schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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