Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lions 29, Cardinals 26 at State Farm Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Lions win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 55.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Lions are 4-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+3.2 per game). The Cardinals are 2-5, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-9.4 per game).
Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cardinals' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from. Cardinals' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) meets Lions' below-average defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cardinals puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 20 and Cardinals by 13 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Lions are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Lions 45, Cardinals 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.5 points and the total by 10.9.
More: Lions schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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