Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Broncos 22, Chargers 21 at SoFi Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Broncos win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 43.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 5-2, scoring 20.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+0.5 per game). The Chargers are 0-6, scoring 15 and allowing 25.2 points per game (-10.2 per game).
Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) meets Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Broncos puts up. Broncos' strong defense (4th) should limit Chargers' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 18 and Chargers by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Chargers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Broncos are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Broncos 23, Chargers 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.5 points and the total by 3.3.
More: Broncos schedule · Chargers schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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