Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Falcons 24, Ravens 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Falcons win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 44.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Ravens are 4-3, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+0.2 per game). The Falcons are 3-4, scoring 24.4 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-0.3 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Falcons' below-average defense (20th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from. Falcons' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) meets Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Falcons puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 13 and Falcons by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Falcons by about 1.3. The game is on NBC.
Result: Ravens 30, Falcons 23. Ravens won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 10.9 points).
More: Ravens schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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