Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rams 28, Bills 27 at SoFi Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Rams win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 54.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bills are 5-1, scoring 32.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4.3 per game). The Rams are 3-4, scoring 24.3 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) against Rams' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th). Rams' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bills' below-average defense (24th); that mismatch is where most of Rams' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 16 and Rams by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bills would be favoured by 1.3. The game is on ESPN / ABC.
Result: Bills 37, Rams 34. Bills won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4.3 points).
More: Bills schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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